Base-Rate Fallacy

When people answer this, they tend to say that the probability it was Blue (the rare case) is about 80%, but the real probability is 41%, because this takes into account the fact that there are may more green cabs than blue ones.

When people answer this, they tend to say that the probability it was Blue (the rare case) is about 80%, but the real probability is 41%, because this takes into account the fact that there are may more green cabs than blue ones.